Money prevails and the fossil fuel lobby is strong.
Saudi Arabia Is Trying to Block a Global Deal to End Fossil Fuels, Negotiators Say
The world’s leading oil exporter has become the most forceful opponent of a new agreement at the U.N. climate summit, according to people inside the talks.
Lisa Friedman, Brad Plumer and
Reporting from the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading exporter of oil, has become the biggest obstacle to an agreement at the United Nations climate summit in Dubai, where countries are debating whether to call for a phaseout of fossil fuels in order to fight global warming, negotiators and other officials said.
The Saudi delegation has flatly opposed any language in a deal that would even mention fossil fuels — the oil, gas and coal that, when burned, create emissions that are dangerously heating the planet. Saudi negotiators have also objected to a provision, endorsed by at least 118 countries, aimed at tripling global renewable energy capacity by 2030.
Saudi diplomats have been particularly skillful at blocking discussions and slowing the talks, according to interviews with a dozen people who have been inside closed-door negotiations. Tactics include inserting words into draft agreements that are considered poison pills by other countries; slow-walking a provision meant to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change; staging a walkout in a side meeting; and refusing to sit down with negotiators pressing for a phaseout of fossil fuels.
The Saudi opposition is significant because U.N. rules require that any agreement forged at the climate summit be unanimously endorsed. Any one of the 198 participating nations can thwart a deal.
Saudi Arabia isn’t the only country raising concerns about more ambitious global efforts to fight climate change. The United States has sought to inject caveats into the fossil fuel phaseout language. India and China have opposed language that would single out coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels. Iran and Russia have pushed for provisions to protect natural gas. And many nations, such as Iraq, have raised concerns that ending oil and gas could devastate countries that depend on fossil fuels for income and have asked for more financial support from wealthier countries.
But Saudi Arabia has stood out as the most implacable opponent of any agreement on fossil fuels.
Saudi officials did not respond to requests for comment.
If nations do agree in Dubai to phase out fossil fuels, or even phase them down, it would be a historic moment. Past U.N. climate deals have shied away from mentioning the words “fossil fuels,” let alone contemplating a phaseout.
But the dynamics appear to have shifted this year, the hottest in recorded history. A group of nations led by small islands, whose countries are most vulnerable to sea level rise and other climate-fueled extreme weather events, want the summit to adopt a formal statement that the era of coal, oil and natural gas should soon come to an end. Aided by Europe, they have made a “fossil fuel phaseout” their top goal at the talks, known as COP28.
Saudi Arabia is the most influential country within the OPEC cartel. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, said recently that his country would “absolutely not” support a deal that called for the phase-down or phaseout of fossil fuels.
That stance is more intransigent than the one adopted by Saudi Arabia’s neighbor, the United Arab Emirates, another major oil and gas producer. Sultan Al Jaber, the Emirati official and oil executive presiding over the talks, said on Friday that the transition away from fossil fuels was “essential” and that countries should aim for “the highest possible ambition” on tackling global warming.
Saudi Arabia and a number of oil companies have tried to focus the talks on emissions, instead of fossil fuels themselves, arguing that technologies such as carbon capture and storage, or CCS, could trap and bury greenhouse gases from oil and gas and allow their continued use.
But other world leaders and most environmentalists say the best way to cut emissions is to switch to cleaner forms of energy like solar, wind, or nuclear, reserving carbon capture for rare situations where alternatives are unavailable.
“The reality we need to face is that we have to phase out fossil fuels, period,” said Wopke Hoekstra, the European commissioner for climate action. “We cannot CCS ourselves out of the problem.”
Inside the negotiating rooms, things are even more combative, according to negotiators and others who asked to remain anonymous so they could describe the closed-door talks.
All of them described the Arab bloc of nations to the United Nations, which is led by Saudi Arabia, as using procedural tactics to delay and stymie a deal on fossil fuels.
Several people described Saudi diplomats giving lengthy speeches that took up the bulk of time at meetings. They also said Saudi negotiators have argued that the 2015 Paris climate agreement calls for cutting emissions, without mentioning specific energy sources, and that nations must not go beyond that original mandate.
Three negotiators also said Saudi Arabia has worked to delay the adoption of text around setting goals for protecting countries from the consequences of climate change. The three said that Saudi Arabia didn’t necessarily oppose the provision on its merits. But, the negotiators explained, if developing nations don’t see progress on the issue of adaptation, they might not be willing to embrace a broader deal that includes a fossil fuel phaseout.
Saudi Arabia’s insistence on including the phrase amounts to “sheer delay tactics,” a European negotiator said.
“They’re using dirty tricks to stop progress on the fossil fuel phaseout,” said Jake Schmidt, the senior strategic director for the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental group.
Saudi Arabia has a long history of throwing sand in the gears of climate talks. In fact, one reason that the U.N. climate body operates by consensus, with any one country able to block a deal, is that Saudi Arabia demanded those rules at the first climate summit in 1992 and has fought to maintain them ever since.
The Saudi delegation is dominated by members of the country’s Energy Ministry, which is closely associated with the state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco. As recently as last year it pushed, along with Russia, to delete a reference to “human-induced climate change” from a U.N. scientific document, effectively challenging the scientific fact that burning fossil fuels causes climate change.
Saudi officials have in the past argued that phasing out fossil fuels is unrealistic, calling the idea a form of moral grandstanding by countries that appear unable to follow through on their pledges. Frustrated Saudis often point out that oil production in the United States is surging and that, during the energy crisis brought on by the war in Ukraine, some European countries turned to coal-fired power plants.
Despite decades of trying to break the so-called “resource curse,” Saudi Arabia remains highly dependent on revenue from fossil fuels to sustain its economy, its government budget and its political stability.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is spending tens of billions of dollars to try to diversify the Saudi economy, investing in industries like renewable energy, tourism, entertainment and artificial intelligence.
Paradoxically, that means the government needs oil revenue to fund its plans for life after oil, analysts say. Officials expect budget shortfalls every year through 2026, partly because of a decline in oil revenue.
Saudi officials often say they see no contradiction between moving toward a future focused on renewable energy, addressing climate change and continuing to export the kingdom’s oil, which they and other major oil producers say the world will need for many years to come, if not for energy, then for petrochemicals.
At COP28, visitors to Saudi Arabia’s exhibit are greeted by illuminated green lettering that proclaims, “Here we write the future.” A flashy panoramic projection of forests planted in the desert and business owners eager to talk about green initiatives amplify the message: This is the new Saudi Arabia.
But the question, analysts said, is whether the Saudi diplomats inside the rooms are ready to shift away from their old positions.
Somini Sengupta, Jenny Gross and Max Bearak contributed reporting from Dubai.
Lisa Friedman reports on federal climate and environmental policy from Washington. She has broken multiple stories about the Trump administration’s efforts to repeal climate change regulations and limit the use of science in policymaking. More about Lisa Friedman
Brad Plumer is a climate reporter specializing in policy and technology efforts to cut carbon dioxide emissions. At The Times, he has also covered international climate talks and the changing energy landscape in the United States. More about Brad Plumer
Vivian Nereim is the lead reporter for The Times covering the countries of the Arabian Peninsula. She is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. More about Vivian Nereim
